Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling

Download or read book Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes. Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses. The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.