Multiannual Macroeconomic Programming Techniques for Developing Economies

Download or read book Multiannual Macroeconomic Programming Techniques for Developing Economies written by Paul Beckerman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Introduction. 1.1. Macroeconomic programming exercises. 1.2. The projection exercise, in summary. 1.3. Uses of multiannual macroeconomic programming exercises. 1.4. Macroeconomic "consistency" analysis. 1.5. Programming assumptions. 1.6. Pacífica's macroeconomy. 1.7. The book's structure -- 2. Overview of the projection procedure. 2.1. The projection procedure. 2.2. Programming assumptions. 2.3. National-accounts projections. 2.4. External-accounts projections. 2.5. Fiscal-accounts projections. 2.6. Monetary-accounts projections. 2.7. Consistency relationships among the national, external, fiscal and monetary accounts projections. 2.8. Concluding observations on the solution procedure -- 3. Basic programming variables. 3.1. Introduction : Basic programming variables. 3.2. Gross domestic product and its growth rate. 3.3. The price level and the exchange rate. 3.4. Sectors and sub-sectors of the gross domestic product. 3.5. Central-bank international-reserve holdings. 3.6. Population and labor force. 3.7. Algebraic relationships among year-average and year-end GDP, price indices, and exchange rates. 3.8. Basic macroeconomic programming variables for "Pacífica" -- 4. Programming variables : Non-interest government expenditure. 4.1. Introduction : Non-interest government-expenditure projections. 4.2. Non-interest current-expenditure projections. 4.3. Capital and other non-recurrent expenditure. 4.4. Pacífica's government expenditure -- 5. Programming variables : external debt and internal government debt. 5.1. Programming external and internal debt. 5.2. External-debt programming techniques. 5.3. External debt-rescheduling and -reduction concepts. 5.4. Debt-reduction concepts associated with the Highly-Indebted Poorest Countries initiative. 5.5. Projections of internal government debt and financial assets. 5.6. Pacífica's external and internal debt -- 6. National-expenditure accounts projections. 6.1. Introduction : national-expenditure accounts projections. 6.2. Capital formation and real-GDP growth. 6.3. Inventory holdings. 6.4. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services. 6.5. Government capital formation and consumption. 6.6. Non-government capital formation and consumption. 6.7. National-accounts projections for "Pacífica" -- 7. External-accounts projections. 7.1. Introduction: External-accounts projections. 7.2. Balance-of-payments projections. 7.3. Reconciling above- and below-the-line balance-of-payments projections. 7.4. External-accounts projections for "Pacífica" -- 8. Fiscal-accounts projections. 8.1. Introduction : financing the fiscal-expenditure flow. 8.2. Government-revenue projections. 8.3. Reconciling above- and below-the-line fiscal projections. 8.4. Taking account of disaggregated public-sector entities. 8.5. Fiscal-accounts projections for "Pacífica" -- 9. Monetary-accounts projections. 9.1. Introduction : monetary-accounts projections. 9.2. Monetary policy consistent with a given macroeconomic program. 9.3. Central-bank capitalization and decapitalization flows. 9.4. Projecting commercial-bank performance. 9.5. Consolidated monetary accounts. 9.6. Monetary-accounts projections for "Pacífica" -- 10. Practical programming and projection issues. 10.1. Introduction : practical programming and projection issues. 10.2. Setting up a macroeconomic projection exercise : data, assumptions, and presentation of results. 10.3. Setting projection assumptions. 10.4. Multiannual macroeconomic projection analysis in government budget-processing cycles. 10.5. Sensitivity analysis. 10.6. Sensitivity analysis for "Pacífica". 10.7. Sensitivity analysis involving debt-reduction exercises. 10.8. A concluding note.