Risk Models with Dependence and Perturbation

Download or read book Risk Models with Dependence and Perturbation written by Zhong Li and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In ruin theory, the surplus process of an insurance company is usually modeled by the classical compound Poisson risk model or its general version, the Sparre-Andersen risk model. Under these models, the claim amounts and the inter-claim times are assumed to be independently distributed, which is not always appropriate in practice. In recent years, risk models relaxing the independence assumption have drawn increasing attention. However, previous research mostly considers the so call dependent Sparre-Andersen risk model under which the pairs of random variables consisting of the inter-claim time and the next claim amount remain independent of each other. In this thesis, we aim to examine the opposite case. Namely, the distribution of the time until the next claim depends on the size of the previous claim amount. Explicit solutions for the Gerber-Shiu function are provided for arbitrary claim sizes and various ruin-related quantities are obtained as special cases. Numerical examples are also presented. The dependent insurance risk process is further generalized to a perturbed version to incorporate small fluctuations of the underlying surplus process. Explicit solutions for the Gerber-Shiu funtion are deduced along with applications and examples. Lastly, we introduce a perturbed dependence structure into the dual risk model and study the ruin time problem. Exact solutions for the Laplace transform and the first moment of the time to ruin with an arbitrary gain-size distribution are obtained. Applications with numerical examples are provided to illustrate the impact of the dependence structure and the perturbation.