Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Download or read book Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil written by Mr.Nooman Rebei and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.