Model Calibration as a Testing Strategy for Dynamic Hypotheses

Download or read book Model Calibration as a Testing Strategy for Dynamic Hypotheses written by Rogelio Oliva and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Calibration estimating model parameters to obtain a match between observed and simulated structures and behaviors-examines whether a model simultaneously adheres to observable structure and behavior. In this paper, I posit that calibration is a stringent test of a hypothesis linking structure tobehavior, and propose a framework to use automated calibration for model testing. I tackle the issue at three levels: theoretical, methodological, and technical. First, I explore the nature of model testing and suggest that the modeling process be recast as an experimental approach to gain confidence in a dynamic hypothesis. At the methodological level, I proposeheuristics to guide the testing strategy and take advantage of the strengths ofautomated calibration. Finally, I present a set of techniques to support the hypothesis testing process. The paper concludes with an example and by summarizing the argument for the proposed approach.