An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17

Download or read book An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Growth Forecasts, 2004–17 written by Oya Celasun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP growth forecasts over that period exhibit little bias, and their accuracy is broadly similar to those of Consensus Economics forecasts. By contrast, two- to five-year ahead WEO growth forecasts in 2004-17 tend to be upward biased, and in up to half of countries less accurate than a naïve forecast given by the average growth rate in the recent past. The analysis suggests that a more efficient use of available information on internal and external factors—such as the estimated output gap, projected terms of trade, and the growth forecasts of major trading partners—can improve the accuracy of some economies’ growth forecasts.