Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts?

Download or read book Are Fund Staff Projections of Debt More Optimistic Under Program Contexts? written by International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005-09-11 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note examines whether projections made in the context of a Fund-supported program are systematically more optimistic than those done for surveillance cases. Of particular interest in this regard is the assessment of external debt sustainability, as this underlies the "capacity to repay the Fund" analysis. Accordingly, this note examines debt projections over the period 1990-2004, with data for transition countries beginning in 1995.