We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of f

Commodity prices are one of the most important drivers of output fluctuations in developing countries. We show that a major channel through which commodity pric

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

What causes a financial crisis? Can financial crises be anticipated or even avoided? What can be done to lessen their impact? Should governments and internation

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since ma