Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities

Download or read book Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector, general-equilibrium model that accounts for unique demand and supply characteristics of commodities. The results show fragmentation-induced output losses can be sizable, especially for Low-Income-Countries, although the magnitudes vary according to the particular scenarios and modelling assumptions. Our work demonstrates that not accounting for granular commodity production and trade linkages leads to underestimation of the output losses associated with trade fragmentation.