IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1

Download or read book IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.