IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2

Download or read book IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.