The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact
Author | : Pelin Berkmen |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2009-12-01 |
ISBN-10 | : 9781451874259 |
ISBN-13 | : 1451874251 |
Rating | : 4/5 (251 Downloads) |
Download or read book The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact written by Pelin Berkmen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.