Time-Varying Thresholds

Download or read book Time-Varying Thresholds written by Serineh Najarian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces a time-varying threshold autoregressive model (TVTAR), which is used to examine the persistence of deviations from PPP. We find support for the stationary TVTAR against the unit root hypothesis; however, for some developing countries, we do not reject the TVTAR with a unit root in the corridor regime. We calculate magnitudes, frequencies, and durations of the deviations of exchange rates from forecasted changes in exchange rates. A key result is asymmetric adjustment. In developing countries, the average cumulative deviation from forecasts during periods when exchange rates are below forecasts is twice the corresponding measure during periods when exchange rates are above forecasts.